Model Documentation
How the Model
Actually Works
A transparent breakdown of the CFPi+ methodology — what goes in, how it's weighted, and where we're taking it next.
The College Football Power Index (CFPi+) is expressed as a projected mean point differential above or below an average FBS team on a neutral field. A CFPi+ of +7.4, for example, means that team is projected to outperform the average FBS opponent by roughly a touchdown.
Win probability is derived from this number using the inherent variance and standard deviation in college football outcomes. A large CFPi+ gap doesn't guarantee a win — it shifts the probability distribution in that team's favor.
To estimate a matchup spread, subtract one team's CFPi+ from the other's. Raw CFPi+ values assume a true neutral field — but our dynamic HFA calculator adjusts for the real environment of each game, quantifying expected points added by a specific venue based on travel distance, weather conditions, traditional rivalries, and the intensity of the home fan base.
CFPi+ = f(Advanced Stats, Opponent Strength, Team Talent, Power Ranking Composite)
⚡
Adjusted Efficiency
Points per drive adjusted for opponent quality. Offense and defense rated independently, then combined.
📈
Success Rate
The most predictive stat in college football. Measures how often a team gains positive expected value on a given down and distance.
🗓️
Strength of Schedule
Iterative opponent quality weighting. Games against stronger opponents carry more predictive weight.
🎓
Talent Composite
Recruiting rankings and portal activity blended into a roster quality score (TPi+).
🔬
Advanced Stats
Explosiveness, havoc rate, line yards, and finishing drives — granular metrics that surface what box scores miss.
⚖️
Power Ranking Composite
A weighted average of ESPN FPI, Past SP+, Current SP+, SRS, and Kelly Ford Rankings. Normalizes outliers and softens data spikes.
The CFPi+ is expressed as a projected mean point differential above or below an average FBS team on a neutral field. A CFPi+ of +7.4, for example, means that team is projected to outperform the average FBS opponent by roughly a touchdown.
Win probability is derived from the variance and standard deviation inherent in college football outcomes — a large gap shifts the distribution in that team's favor but doesn't guarantee a result.
To estimate a spread for any matchup, subtract one CFPi+ from the other. The dynamic HFA calculator then applies venue-specific adjustments — accounting for travel distance, weather, rivalry intensity, and the raw decibel level of the home crowd.
Live2025-26 Season Final CFPi+ Power Index
136 FBS teams ranked by our composite power metric — final end-of-season standings
Live2025-26 Season Final EPi+ Efficiency Index
Offensive and defensive efficiency breakdowns for all 136 FBS teams
Live2025-26 Advanced Stats, Talent Composite & Strength of Record
Deep-dive metrics covering success rate, explosiveness, recruiting, portal activity, and win quality
NextCMBKi+ March Madness Predictor
Bracket predictions powered by our college basketball efficiency model — pick your champion before tip-off
SoonPre-Spring 2026 CFPi+ Power Rankings
Way Too Early projections — first look at the 2026 season landscape. Dropping April 9th.
Summer 2026Pre-Season Power 4 Dashboard
Full season projections for every SEC, Big Ten, ACC, and Big 12 team. Coming July 2026.
Summer 2026Weekly In-Season CFPi+ Rankings
Live power rankings updated after every game week. Coming August 2026.
Summer 2026Weekly Predictions — Top 10 Games + SEC Spotlight
Spread estimates and win probability for the 10 biggest games of the week. Coming August 2026.
Summer 2026Full Season Game Predictions Premium Feature
Every FBS matchup, every week — complete game-by-game forecasts with spread estimates and win probability.
PlannedGame Predictor Dashboard Premium Feature
Head-to-head matchup simulator with spread estimates, win probability, and dynamic HFA adjustments.
PlannedReal-Time Score Predictor
Continuously updating projected final score and win probability with every possession.