
Sun Belt · 2026
Arkansas State
0–1
#112
CFPi+
View full team outlook in the War Room →
CFPi+ Index
CFPi+
-10.9#112
Offense
+23.6#99
Defense
+34.6#118
National Composite
-11.3#114
EPi+ Efficiency
-14.0#126
TPi+ Talent
-7.9#94
Head Coach
-10.8#115
EPi+ Efficiency Index
EPi+
-13.1#117
Off EPi+
-0.2#74
Def EPi+
+12.9#135
Off Success
50.0%#49
Def Success
49.2%#118
Havoc Created
9.2%#125
Advanced Stats
| Stat | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Success Rate | 50.0% | #49 | 49.2% | #118 |
| Explosiveness | +1.3 | #63 | +1.5 | #110 |
| Havoc Rate | 16.7% | #101 | 9.2% | #125 |
| Pass PPA | +0.2 | #93 | +1.2 | #135 |
| Rush PPA | +0.2 | #62 | +0.4 | #128 |
TPi+ Talent Index
TPi+
-7.9#94
Recruiting
-2.3#80
Returning
-11.1#102
247 Talent
606.2#91
Head Coach
-10.8#115
National Composite
C
-11.3#114
SP+
-15.1#120
SP+ Off
+21.3#102
SP+ Def
+36.5#123
ESPN FPI
-10.7#111
Traditional Stats
Yards/G
434.0#58
Yards/G Allowed
523.0#128
Pass Yards/G
325.0#29
Rush Yards/G
109.0#107
3rd Down
50.0%#44
3rd Down Allowed
55.6%#127
Sacks/G
1.0#82
Takeaways/G
2.0#23
2026 Scheduleprojected 5.86–6.14
Record
1–1
Simulated
6–6
Projected
5.9–6.1
Best case
8–4
Worst case
3–9
| WK | OPPONENT | RESULT | PROJECTED | WIN PROB | MARKET | EDGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @#57 Memphis | L 24–42 | Final | |||
| 2 | vsWest Georgia | W 52–7 | Final | |||
| 3 | @#44 TCU | — | Lose by 18.6 20–38 | 14.2% | — | — |
| 4 | vs#115 Kennesaw State | — | Win by 1.3 28–27 | 52.9% | — | — |
| 5 | @#105 Louisiana | — | Lose by 3.6 27–31 | 41.8% | — | — |
| 6 | vs#116 South Alabama | — | Win by 1.4 30–28 | 53.2% | — | — |
| 7 | @#100 Southern Miss | — | Lose by 4.2 27–31 | 40.4% | — | — |
| 8 | vs#130 Georgia State | — | Win by 8.1 34–24 | 67.9% | — | — |
| 10 | vs#138 UL Monroe | — | Win by 14.9 34–20 | 80.4% | — | — |
| 11 | @#122 Coastal Carolina | — | Win by 1.3 30–28 | 53.0% | — | — |
| 12 | @#96 Louisiana Tech | — | Lose by 5.3 24–31 | 38.1% | — | — |
| 13 | vs#101 Troy | — | Lose by 1.8 27–28 | 45.9% | — | — |
CFPi+ V2026.2 · data vintage 9/8/2026